international roaming

Roaming is ending for users, not for operators: the potential consequences

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The roaming reform finally entering into force on June 15, 2017 is right and due, because European citizens deserve, although within the limits of simple traveling, the end of roaming surcharges which, beyond the economic burden, have been an unbearable discontinuity in the European integration process.

However, the reform is also incomplete because it eliminates roaming surcharges for users (Roaming Like At Home: RLAH) while keeping such surcharges amongst operators under the form of high wholesale roaming caps (the cost that a mobile operator must pay to a foreign network to use it and provide roaming service sto its customers). Such wholesale caps have been fixed by way of regulation at a level which is totally inconsistent with the market practice. To make an example, the starting wholesale cap for data will be 7.7 Euro for Gigabyte (6.0 euro from January 2018 up to 2.5 euro in 2022) awhile current retail tariffs are already much below and cheaper (between 1 and 2 Euro per Giga).

As a result, many mobile operators, especially small innovative and MVNOs, will have to provide RLAH services below costs. In order to recover such costs, various options may be available (which may come as unexpected surprises for consumers):

– limiting the RLAH data with the so-called fair usage clauses (for unlimited or low cost data bundles)

– asking national regulators for a derogation and continue to apply roaming surcharges;

– increasing domestic tariffs, in order to be able to replicate them abroad as RLAH;

– issuing “domestic” SIM cards without roaming ;

– quitting the market.

The above will not happen tomorrow, it will depend on market conditions and on the evolution of usage patterns. Until now European citizens were not consuming data abroad because were scared about high or uncertain roaming tariffs. This situation will change, also due to new features available in the market, like the portability of content abroad.

However, some signals are already in the market. Finnish operators Elisa and DNA are already asking for derogation, as well as all the operators in Lithuania and Estonia, O2 Slovakia and Voo in Belgium. Up to now, it seem that almost 40 derogation requests have been filed in the EU and 24 of these have been granted by national regulators. In addition, domestic tariffs increases are happening in Denmark and Sweden. Moreover, operators are increasing a variety of other charges to try and offset the end to roaming surcharges: in Italy, for instance, mobile network operators have been rescheduling the monthly subscription from 30 days to 4 weeks.

The next months will tell us whether this is just a normal market adjustment or the beginning of a general trend that may frustrate the consumers’ expectation for the end of roaming.

Of course, the above problems may be mitigated should the European institutions decide to lower roaming wholesale caps to level more aligned with the market practice.

 

Why the end of roaming surcharges is not the start of a Single Telecom Market

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The single telecom market which had to be

In the last few years many people, including me, believed that the phasing-out of roaming surcharges would have shaken the European telecom market, transforming the current puzzle of distinct domestic markets into a unified, single and big European telecom market. This was apparently the scope of the legislative initiative encompassing the roaming reform proposed by Commissioner Kroes in 2013, the Single Telecom Act also known as the Connected Continent (which ended up with Regulation 2120/2015). Indeed, we expected that once roaming surcharges would disappear, users would be able to subscribe mobile services from any operator in the EU, thanks to the fact that any domestic mobile tariff would be valid elsewhere in Europe. To make an example, a French citizen would purchase a Finnish mobile SIM from a Finnish operator if he/she believes that retail tariffs in Finland are more convenient than in France. In such circumstances, competition would fiercely emerge at cross-border level, with European citizens looking at better mobile tariffs available abroad, while mobile operators would be targeting clients everywhere in the UE, not only in their domestic market. Thus, the mobile European market would have rapidly becoming a unique competitive space leading to rapid consolidation amongst telecom operators, with the main groups (Telefonica, Orange, Deutsche Telecom and Vodafone) shopping abroad in order to be able to achieve continental scale.

The European institutions would have welcomed such development. In particular, since 2015 the offices of DG Competition have resisted plans for domestic consolidation by telecom operator, while letting open a window for cross-border mergers. The head of Competition directorate, Margaret Vestager, rejected mobile mergers in UK and Denmark, while imposing remedies in Italy, with this making clear that the time for domestic consolidation had ended. According to Vestager, mobile operators could continue to merge only at cross-border level while the phasing-out of roaming surcharges would provide the right incentive for that. The fixed market would have followed, since the biggest mobile operators in Europe are integrated with fixed networks.

What’s gonna happen instead

Despite the above, the expected consolidation in the mobile market is unlikely to happen. This is due to the final mechanism, introduced with regulation 2120/2015, setting the end of roaming surcharges. The retail and wholesale regime should be examine separately.

Retail

The Roaming-Like-At-Home regime introduced by Regulation 2120/2015 does not mean the European citizens may actually use a SIM card everywhere in the EU without paying roaming surcharges. In fact, the regulation prohibits permanent roaming, that is to say roaming services to be used in competition with domestic ones. In other words, European citizens may enjoy a free-roaming regime only when temporarily traveling abroad, not in order to get more favorable retail tariffs from foreign operators. The latter behavior is considered abusive or even fraudulent by the regulation.

Wholesale

While imposing the end of roaming surcharges by June 15, 2017, regulation 2120/2015 sets wholesale roaming access tariffs which are completely misaligned with domestic retail tariffs. Fact is, beginning from June 2017 the operator’s cost to provide roaming abroad will be 7,7 Euro per Gigabyte, with a decreasing glide path ending up with Euro 2,5 per Gigabyte in 2022. Such wholesale tariffs are fully inconsistent with domestic practice, since today mobile operators normally sell one Gigabyte for 1 or 2 Euro on average. It follows that many mobile operators, mainly MVNOs and small mobiles, will face losses when providing roaming services at domestic tariffs. The situation may be different for big mobile operators which normally exchange roaming traffic on the basis of bilateral agreements, based on the fact that inbound and outbound traffic are quite balanced. For such operators, wholesale rates have only a nominal value, no losses are incurred.

Because of the above, the phasing-out of roaming surcharges will put small and competitive operators at risk, while big mobile operators will be reinforced. No pan-european competition may emerge from this scenario, as big mobile operators will continue to defend domestic markets (where they can extract oligopolistic profits), while more competitive operators will be unable to be commercially aggressive. Under such circumstances, there will be no incentive for big mobile operators to merger at continental basis. The telecom market will remain fragmented as it is.

Why it ended up like this

Basically, while the traditional telecom industry had to accept the end of roaming surcharges because of political pressure, it succeeded in convincing the European institutions that domestic markets must be preserved because they are still important to make profit and sustain investments. The misalignment between wholesale tariffs and domestic practice has this scope: preventing foreign operators to attack domestic markets by way of convenient foreign/roaming tariffs. In addition, consumers cannot use foreign SIM to escape less convenient domestic tariffs.

As a result of the above, the scope of a single telecom market will be completely missed. On one side, there is no incentive for operators to provide cross-border services and consequently to merge. On the other side, bigger mobile operators are getting reinforced and will have the possibility to increase domestic tariffs, thus strengthening the isolation amongst domestic mobile markets.

What the European institutions will not say about the disguised end of roaming surcharges: the end of mobile competition and the rise of mobile tariffs

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BREAKING NEWS: DURING THE NIGHT THE TRILOGUE AGREED UPON EURO 7,7 EURO/GIGA TO FALL UP TO 2,5 EURO/GIGA IN THE NEXT YEARS. I REGRETTABLY CONFIRM THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN MY BELOW POST

In the night of January 31, 2017 representatives of European Parliament, Council and Commission are set to agree on the maximum levels (so-called “wholesale roaming caps”) mobile operators can charge each other for access to their networks in order to allow customers to use services when traveling abroad without paying roaming surcharges (so called roaming like at home).

While everybody agrees that the end of roaming surcharges will be beneficial for all consumers, it is sad to see that the selected mechanism will affect competition and allow a rapid increase of mobile tariffs everywhere in Europe. This is due to the high level of wholesale roaming caps that will be agreed tonight, which is expected to be between 7 and 8,50 Euro per Gigabyte (and with a weak glide path). Since most of retail tariffs in Europe offer one Gigabyte for 1 or 2 euro, it is evident that most operators will not be able to recover their costs when providing roaming to their customers. In order to prevent losses, they should be increasing domestic retail offers, or even stopping providing roaming services. Others may invoke a sustainability mechanism allowing them to continue to apply roaming surcharges in order to be able to pay the wholesale roaming caps.

Big mobile operators will be less affected by the level of wholesale roaming surcharges, thanks to the ability to compensate reciprocally the roaming traffic in the frame of established bilateral agreements (someone call them cartels). However, thanks to the struggles and pains by small and competitive mobile and MVNO operators, big mobile ones will have less competitive pressure and may start to increase price back, as it is already happening by the way.

Even worst: because of a complex mechanism provide by arts. 4.2. and 4.3. of Regulation 2016/2286 (the implementing rules enacted by the European commission last December to regulate in details this matter), the highest the level of wholesale caps, the fewer the roaming traffic exempted  by surcharges that users my benefit in case they have an unlimited Internet plan or a pre-paid sim card.

The European institutions are aware of this poisoned effect of the “end of roaming”, however they have not been able to agree on lower wholesale caps due to various reasons.

The European Commission, in lack of credibility, needs to officially declare the end of roaming at all costs, no matter for the side effects. President Juncker took a personal political initiative on this matter in order to be able to set an historical precedent and imposed the end of roaming by way of legislation, although the offices of the Commission (especially the one sin DG Connect) were well aware of the side effects of this result and have been working in order to minimise them. Nevertheless, the political pressure prevailed over reality and basic economics.

The Council, i.e. the governments, is splitted but, at the end, is caught by some Member States (France and Germany) who want to protect their mobile market and oligopoly therein while others (the Mediterranean countries) are willing to continue to monetize some cash brought by summer tourists.

The Parliament has been much more fighting and one should recognize that the rapporteur, the Finnish Miapetra Kumpula-Natri, has been trying to propose more competitive wholesale caps (starting at 4 Euro per Gigabyte in 2017 and down to one Euro in 2020) together with the shadow rapporteurs of the other political parties. The EPP issued a crystal clear press release making clear that wholesale caps should be below retail tariffs, not above.

However, even these commendable efforts have been vain due the intransigence of Council and Commission.

The confused international roaming saga in the EU (and the Finnish solution, hopefully)

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UPDATE: on November 29, 2016 the ITRE committee of the European Parliament endorsed the proposal of MEP Kampala-Natri, with even lower prices for data.

Roaming surcharges will be definitively and completely abolished by mid-2017, according to a new proposal to be announced today by the European Commission, subject to an agreement to be found with Member States. The latter fear that full-end of roaming surcharges will allow any mobile operator to commercialize SIM cards everywhere in Europe (so-called “permanent roaming”) and they are reluctant to that, unless specific measures are established to avoid such cross-border competition. Remarkably, the Commission itself was also trying to avoid permanent roaming until yesterday, but then a corto-circuito happened amongst the wise minds of the Berlaymont (see below).

The end of roaming surcharges may sound good for European citizens, but the proposal at stake may be so disruptive for the European mobile market that many mobile operators (especially small mobile operators and MVNOs) may not be able to continue to provide roaming services abroad because they may incur unrecoverable losses (as explained below). As a consequence of that, most of these operators may be forced to stop providing roaming abroad, or they may decide to increase domestic retail tariffs. As said, most affected operators may be small mobile operators or MVNOs, that is to say the players that traditionally have been providing consumers with most competitive and innovative offers. It is a strange contrappasso that such operators may have to leave the market because of a regulation about the end international roaming, even if they never made profits with such surcharges (unlike big and dominant mobile operators).

The reason for this paradox is that mobile operators have to buy access from foreign networks when providing roaming services to their subscribers traveling abroad (so-called wholesale roaming access). However, such wholesale roaming tariffs are normally much higher than real costs and are in particular higher (by multiples) than domestic wholesale tariffs (the ones paid to provide domestic services in case of MVNO not having a mobile network). This lack of alignment between domestic and roaming wholesale costs becomes disruptive once roaming surcharges disappear by virtue of law and mobile operators have to guarantee the same retail tariff to their customers, irrespective if they are in the home country or abroad.

The only possibility to avoid this disaster would be to align domestic and roaming wholesale costs. The latter are currently capped by Regulation 531/2012, however the current caps are enormously higher than market reality. This is particularly relevant for data/internet data cap, since the current regulated wholesale roaming cap is Euro 50 for a Gigabyte. Last June the European Commission proposed to reduce such price to Euro 8,5 per Gigabyte– a price which however is still much higher than what consumers normally pay for domestic mobile services.

The Commission’s proposal is currently debated between the Parliament and Council. The Assembly’s rapporteur Miapetra Kumpula-Natri (a Finnish socialist MEP) yesterday September 20, 2016 tabled a proposal (still not available online) which honestly goes in the direction of fixing the problem, since she proposes 5 Euro per Gigabyte with a glide path bringing the roaming wholesale cap to 1 euro per Gigabyte in 2021, with a review starting in 2019. If this proposal will be agreed by others MEPs and by the Council, the end of roaming in Europe will not affect competition and consumers will get a double benefit: end of roaming surcharges and still a vibrant competitive mobile market. Kudos to Miapetra if she succeeds.

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To explain the full story, one should recall that at beginning of September the European Commission proposed to oblige mobile operators to provide customers with “just” a minimum free-roaming traffic (so called “fair usage”) amounting to 90 days a year. This limitation was due to the high level of wholesale roaming cap (the mentioned 50 Euro, to be reduced to 8,5, per Gigabyte). Nevertheless, this proposal basically covered the needs of 99% of the European citizens, given that, according to official statistics, Europeans travel abroad 12 days a year on average. Thus, the excluded people (that 1% of European people traveling abroad more than 3 months a year) were basically businessmen, rock stars, fashion models and circus staff. Nevertheless, some politicians and consumers organizations complained for the 90 days fair use rules, probably more for a matter of principle than for real understanding of the matter.

The competent EU Commissioners, Ansip and Oettinger, have been defending the ratio of the fair use rule despite populist critics. However, on September 9 the Commission suddenly withdrew the proposal and only later we learned that the action was required by President Juncker. Speculations suggested that he was fearing to get some embarrassment during the imminent State of the Union speech in Strasbourg,  or maybe he thought that by doing so he could get a personal political recognition for the end of roaming, despite of the work done by his colleagues Ansip and Oettinger so far. Whatever the political explanation may be, Juncker promised a system enabling EU citizens/consumers to “travel around in Europe […] and feel at home everywhere in Europe thanks to the new roaming rules”. Basically, Juncker was promising permanent roaming, despite the fact the the European Commission have been working hard for months in order to avoid such result.

Remarkably, Juncker also affirmed that Erasums students, who may be abroad for a semester, would not get advantage of the 90-days fair use. Probably he did not know that Erasmus students do not suffer for roaming surcharges, because they are used to get a Sim Card in the country where they go to study for various reasons: being called/call new friends at local tariffs; having a customer relationship with a local mobile operator (to manage subscriptions, charging credit, getting a new Sim Card in case of lost or disfunction; accessing the customer care); benefiting of number portability; and so on. Regrettably, nobody informed Mr. Juncker about that.

Why it is so difficult (but not impossible) to get rid of roaming surcharges

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It’s today’s news that the European Commission has withdrawn, upon request of the President’s office, the proposed measure implementing the roaming phasing-out prescribed by the EU Regulation 2015/2120 which amended the Roaming Regulation 531/2012. The draft measure imposed a minimum obligation of 90 days (per year) to abolish roaming surcharges. Beyond that limit, mobile operators may (it’s their discretion) confirm to abolish roaming surcharges or continue to apply them, although within some caps (4 cents for voice calls and 0,85 cents for Megabyte). This minimum obligation, called also as “fair usage” have attracted criticism by politicians and consumers claiming that the end of roaming surcharges is not achieved yet in Europe.

Before going into details, one should make a few substantial precisions:

– the legal fair usage provision is set by in the Roaming Regulation 531/2012 (art. 6b) as amended by Regulation 2120/2015, thus the withdrawn measure (a subordinated legislative act) is just implementing a principle contained in the primary legislation;

– the Commission has always stated that roaming surcharges would have never been completely abolished, because the Commission itself wanted to avoid the so-called “permanent roaming”, that is to say a situation whereby consumers may roam abroad indefinitely, with the result that he/she could buy a sim card in a country and use it abroad without limitation of traffic of time. In such a scenario, a consumer could therefore choose, as mobile provider, any mobile operator in the EU, not just the ones of his country of residence. This option is considered by the EU, believe it or not, an abuse (see art. 3, par. 6, of Regulation 531/2012, as amended by Regulation 2120/2015);

– Commission and Parliament were very well aware of the above. Therefore, it is a bit curious that now they are complaining or regretting. My impression is that this matter may be used to get political visibility, despite the facts that correct decisions could have been taken earlier. The intervention of the Junker Cabinet is not accidental: the head of cabinet of the president is Martin Selmayr who, while serving Commissioner Reding in the mandate 2004-2008, proposed the end of roaming and builded his career on it;

– It is true, however, that in the past some EU Commissioners (especially Nellie Kroes, the predecessors of the current Digital Agenda Commissioner) and politicians have been publicly emphasizing so much their contribution to the roaming reform that they generated also the impression in the public opinion that the roaming surcharges would finish soon and completely. It was nor false neither completely true , but this is politics, folk!

The most puzzling part of this story is that people may think that the end of roaming is just a matter of political will and common sense, that roaming surcharges could finish by just agreeing and writing down a ban. The reality is different, it is not a matter of shaking hands: roaming surcharges exist because of market structures (and costs), therefore what the legislator can and should do is intervening upon such market structures in order to prevent the conditions for roaming surcharges to exist.

To be more clear: if mobile services have to be priced at the same tariffs without distinction at home (domestic services) and abroad (roaming services), also the underlining costs should be aligned. In fact, if the cost of productions of one minute of domestic voice is 1 Eurocent, in order to maintain that price abroad (as roaming services) also the costs abroad should be more or less the same. The “cost abroad” is the so called “wholesale roaming access”, that is to say the tariff the mobile operators pay when buy access to foreign mobile networks to permit their customers to roam over there. This is unavoidable, because no mobile operator, neither a large corporation like Vodafone, own 28 mobile networks throughout Europe.

But what happens instead? The reality is that domestic and roaming access costs are currently non-aligned, with roaming costs to be sometimes 10 or 15 times multiples of domestic costs! Under such conditions, it is not possible to abolish roaming surcharges: how could a mobile operator replicate abroad a domestic offer when the costs abroad are 10 or 15 tome higher? It would go under-costs.

Why this tremendous costs discrepancy exists? This is an historical sinn of dominant mobile operators (mainly Telefonica, DT, Telecom Italia, Orange and Vodafone, but not only) which have been using roaming access costs as a barrier against foreign operators trying to attack their domestic markets. If roaming access costs would be lower, a small mobile or MVNO operator from abroad could sell Sim Cards to the domestic market competing with local offers. This scenario is called “permanent roaming”: in other words, a customers could buy a Sim Card form whoever mobile operator in the EU and roam everywhere throughout the 28-countries Union. Big mobile operators want to avoid this scenario because they prefer to defend isolated and separated domestic mobile markets, where “competition” is limited by only 3 or 4 mobile operators holding the networks (due to scarcity of spectrum).

What is doing the European Commission against this? It’s a bit schizophrenic, to tell the true. One one side, the Commission is supporting the end of roaming surcharges, but on the other side it does not take the right measure to align domestic and roaming wholesale costs. In fact, in June 2016 the European Commission tabled a proposal for reducing wholesale costs which is clear insufficient to achieve the scope. To make an example, the roaming wholesale cap for Internet is 0,85 Eurocent per Megabyte, a figure which is much higher than retail domestic prices. Also the wholesale costs for voice (4 Eurocent) is disproportionated. This disgraced proposal is now in the hands of Parliament and Council which have the opportunity to take the right technical decision, i.e. lowering the wholesale roaming costs down to the level of domestic ones, rather than continuing with populist declarations and initiatives.

The (quasi) end of roaming, i.e. the unpredictable consequences of the Grexit

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Believe it or not, the Greek financial drama was fundamental to finalize today the long-awaited European agreement for the end of roaming surcharges and the regulation of net neutrality. Just few weeks ago several signals in Brussels suggested that Council and European Parliament were unable to find a compromise on the text negotiated in the Trialogue. The Latvian Presidency was already preparing the hand-over to the Luxemburger successors. Then something happened. The dramatization of the Grexit and the controversial debate, on both traditional and social media, about the role of the European Union for the destiny of its citizens, changed the scenario: Council and Parliament realized that it was time to provide evidence of what happens in Brussels beyond discussions. And the (political) agreement about the Single Telecom Market, the unlucky, controversial and watered-down invention of Commissioner Kroes of September 2013, is now close to the end.

Next steps will be the formal and legal ratification of the agreement. However, while there is no doubt about the final approval by the Council, the position of the European Parliament, which will have to approve the deal in plenary session, remains a bit unpredictable: in fact, it is clear that the representative of the Assembly have been surrending to the Council, and some MEPs will be unhappy. Therefore, it is still possible that the plenary session may disregard the political agreement on the grounds that the deadline of the roaming surcharges and the details of the net neutrality framework are not satisfactory. Let’s see.

In any case, as regards the roaming deal, it must be stressed that the even beyond mid-2017, i.e. the date fixed for the end of the roaming surcharges, the problem will be not completely over. In fact, telecom operators will retain the right to continue to charge roaming surcharges vis-à-vis anomalous or abusive behaviors of consumers. Whats’ about? It is the case, according to the fact sheet of the Commission, when:

for example, if the customer buys a SIM card in another EU country where domestic prices are lower to use it at home; or if the customer permanently stays abroad with a domestic subscription of his home country”.

One could argue why such a behavior should be considered abusive! To the opposite, buying services from any operator in the EU, and using such services everywhere, should the ultimate objective and dream of this integration process! However, this is a political compromise, i.e. a kind of political price paid by the European institutions to the big telecom operators which do not want roaming surcharges to disappear completely, otherwise small and competitive operators could start to offer mobile services from a country to another (for instance: a Finnish mobile operator selling SIMs to Italian customers, and viceversa) jeopardizing the national mobile oligopolies. That’s life.

In other words, in mid-2017 the end of roaming surcharges will be limited to a so-called “fair usage”, that is to say a minimum amount of traffic that operators have to guarantee without roaming surcharges, while the exceeding traffic will be more expensive. Who will decide the quantity of the surcharge? Council and European Parliament are still finalizing the text. The likely option should be a minimum fair usage allowance to be decided ex-ante by Berec, the European regulators agency.

In both cases, the market will react depending on the competitive conditions resulting out from the final legal text: if the entire framework is sufficiently competitive, i.e. provides affordable and low wholesale tariffs allowing all operators to compete everywhere in the EU, than there will be a fierce competition in providing customers with the best and wider fair usage offer. By contrast, if the final legal text is not competitive, i.e. mobile dominant operators will be the only one, thanks to high and non competitive wholesale tariffs, to drive the market, their interest will be at minimizing, as much as possible, the fair usage clause.

Will Google ever become a (virtual) mobile operator?

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Latest news reported that Google is negotiation an agreement with Hutchison Whampoa permitting to the US company to launch a mobile service worldwide charging the same for calls, texts and mobile data regardless of the customer’s location. This seems to be a disruptive entry of the OTT industry into the exhausting discussions about the abolition of roaming surcharges. More recently, Google announced a wider mobile strategy named Project Fi, aiming at providing mobile at a connectivity in more than 100 countries int he world. Commissioner Oettinger, some one who cannot be seen a Google’s friend, welcomed the initiative claiming that the move of Google may be seen as an incentive to close rapidly the discussion about the end of roaming.

One could wonder what could be the real aim of Google in this area. By getting wholesale access from Hutchison (or from any other mobile operator), Google may become an MVNO (mobile virtual operator) and start to operate like Virgin Mobile in UK, Postemobile in Italy, Numericable in France, Telenet in Belgium ecc. However, this scenario seems not realistic per se, because of a few simple reasons:

– the MVNO business is regulated exactly as a telecom business, and I wonder whether Google may be really willing to become part of this complex regulatory environment. Better to remain in the OTT world instead;

profitability and margins in the mobile sector are decreasing in general. A MVNO must be very efficient to get a positive result because – in the absence of mobile access regulation – the cost of the wholesale mobile agreement is unilaterally decided by the mobile telco (Hutchison in the Google’s case) providing access;

– the roaming business is going to decline in any case, in the EU and abroad, because of a regulatory and economic trend worldwide, although at different speeds (you can still make some good money in some part of the world, but how long?). Therefore, today in 2015 it is too late to enter this market. Roaming tariffs still exists just to separate national markets and avoid cross-border competition, while the absolute margins are becoming negligible for the overall business of a mobile operator. MVNO can make still an interesting business if they are efficient, however such margins are likely much lower than margins of online  advertising.

Thus, Google’s objective in this area may be somewhere else. More likely, the move of Mountain View can be seen as the irresistible rise of OTT services over connectivity, with the latter becoming a simple commodity with a value destined to decrease over time.

In fact, operating as an MVNO (and thus becoming a regulated player) could make sense only if the envisaged business is more sophisticated than providing mobile connectivity. Google could think to bundle its platform and services with connectivity in various forms, in order to reflect the market trend whereby search and video are migrating from fixed to mobile. This strategy could be reinforced by Zero-rating tariffs: in other words, Google mobile users would have a preferential price to access service supplied or simply hosted by Google. Net neutrality supporters wouldn’t like, however.

This overall business strategy may however rise antitrust concerns due to the dominance position of Google in some markets.

A way for Google to avoid telecom regulation, and maybe to minimize antitrust concerns, would be to operate as mere airtime reseller, i.e. offering to users a package of mobile data connectivity everywhere and getting a commission fee from the mobile operator. Since the connectivity service would still be formally provided by the mobile operator selling the airtime, Google would not become an MVNO, and it would escape telecom regulation. That kind of business may be combined with the commercialization of Free-sim mobile devices, as Apple is also considering to do it.